The conference tournaments have arrived in full force, and one of them kicks off tonight with a game featuring two teams from the MIssouri Valley conference that have played sub-.500 ball in league play during the season, though both teams by no means are a slouch and are well-coached and highly competitive group of players. The line has began here with southern illinois being favored by 4 in a neutral setting, which is a bit odd considering that Drake has taken them down twice this year, one on the road and one on their home floor. Capping conference tournaments are a bit unique in that there are additional factors to consider, such as the motivation level, recent neutral court performance, and head-to-head results between both teams. If you can break all these factors down coherently, you can find diamonds in these tournaments if you look carefully at the lines that are in play.

The Southern Illinois Salukis come in finshing the regular season at 15-14 overall with a 6-12 conf. record and being losers of 7 out of their last ten games. Despite the losses, they have not been blown out in any of those games and were competitive in almost every game, and do come in with a positive scoring margin on the year, averaging around 70 ppg on offense while giving up around 68 ppg. The problem seems to be finishing games for this team and it is understandable, considering that they have a young team that does not have a whole lot of experienced seniors on their squad and are still growing. They have gone through inconsistent stretches of play late in the season, and finished second to last in conference wins, the latter belonging to Evansville. Southern Illinois have been known for their tenacious play on defense in recent memory, most notably departed players such as Jamal Tatum, Matt Shaw, Randall Falker, and Dan Mullins which was part of a legendary southern illlinois squad that made a run in the NCAA tourney couple years ago, almost taking down Kansas in the process. But since then, players have come and gone, and the program has not reached the expectations demanded by their passionate fan base. They possess some talent in dillard, freeman, and power forward carlton fay, and although they play hard the results have not been there for them. They are clearly a team that has had an identity crisis thoughout the season and still growing together as a team with transfers like freeman from Iowa. It could be a year or two until they become a force to be reckoned with in this conference but the time is not yet.

Drake on the other end, come in at a pedestrian 13-18 overall, having gone 7-11 during conference play. After starting out slow in the early part of their conference schedule, you could see their play beginning to improve dramatically as they won 6 out of their next 7 games after losing 4 to open the conference slate. It is also worth mentioning that they have beaten almost every team in the Missouri Valley with the exception being northen iowa, bradley, and indiana state. Their scoring margin overall is on the negative side, averaging about 67.5 ppg on offence as opposed to 69 ppg on defense. Drake was the class of the Valley last year, in which they were clearly the best team in the conference last yeat, but the departure of several key faces has depleted the roster. Despite this, they showed signs of jelling as a unit during conference play with some brilliant victories in the process. They are led by their star in Josh Young who played such a key role in last year's successful run. He is flanked by other contributors like templeton, wedel, van deest, and others. They run a typical 3-guard offense predicated on using the outside shot as a weapon to jumpstart their offense. Their ability to knock down shots from downtown have usually meant the difference between winning and losing.

When I look at this matchup and break it down, these are clearly two young teams that are still growing at this stage and struggling late in the season to survive the brutal conference that is the Missouri Valley. Yet I tend to give the edge here to Drake because of players like young and templeton who have the experience of winning the conference tournament last year and know  just how well they have to play to advance. On the other side, you also have a lot of inexperience in the tournament with newcomer like freeman and the fact that southern illinois has not been playing well of late is not a good sign when they are trying to beat a team that they have lost to two times already. A less-than-impressive defense they have displayed this year could be trouble if Drake can run their offense and hit the 3-ball repeatedly. That is why I do not see the revenge factor as being all that big here because southern illinois is merely trying to play mediocre ball at this point. This line should not be this high and Drake will easily cover this number. Take the points here with the Drake Bulldogs as they find their way into the second round of the tournament led by Young and the rest of the crew. Drake +4, GL

Bracket-buster weekend has arrived in full force with 2 games having tipped off on Friday and many more being played early Saturday. Early indications have seen most of the home teams prevailing in these non-conference matchups as would be expected, strictly in terms of strait-up moneylines. It is understandable, considering that most of the teams have no scouting report on the other team and have zero experience playing on the other's home court. This has been evident especially in the games between potential bubble teams for the NCAA selection as the home court advantage has played a big role in determining the straight-up winner. Northern Iowa, Iona, VCU, Butler, and Murray State are just one of the few home teams that have capitalized on the opportunity to pick up an important win on their home court, not to mention these teams have gone a combined 4-1 ATS overall in these contests.

This brings us to the matchup late into saturday night when wichita state from the missouri valley conference takes a trip down to Logan, Utah for a matchup with the streaking Utah State Aggies, who are currently riding a 11-game win streak and have caught fire at the right time. Meanwhile, Wichita state is also having a fine season, coming in at 22-6 overall with a 11-5 record in the missouri valley which is more than respectable as it is by far the toughest mid-major conference in the nation. After beginning the season on fire, soaring out to a 16-2 record, wichita state has slowed down a bit alternating wins and losses for the last few weeks. However, they do come of two straight victories in close contests in which they needed overtime to get past an evansville team, that is in the bottom part of the standings. Wichita state has very balanced scoring and utilize their depth very well, as they go as many as 10-deep. Murry, Hannah, and Durley score in double figures while they have divided the scoring punch evenly across the board among their bench players with guys like ellis, kyles, blair, and stutz. Like any team from the Valley, Wichita state plays with solid fundamentals and play solid defense, mostly man-to-man and have good athleticism on their team overall. They also have shooters in hannah, durley, murry, blair, and even ellis. This makes them tough to defend as they possess players that can step out and hit the three, which means the defense has to extend out to the perimeter to guard aginst the outside threat. Lately though, Wichita State has not been dominant in their play, especially on the road where they have struggled to find an identity. It may be partially due to fatigue late in the season, but also they do not have many pure ballhandlers which makes it tough to hold onto the ball on the road where pressure is dialed up more frequently. Nevertheles, they still remain a dangerous team to deal with.

Utah State is an example of a team that has turned around its season with a bang. After beginning the season a bit slow uncharacteristically and losing some tough non-conference matchups at the hands of in-state rival utah, northeastern, and st. marys(cal) it did not get a whole lot better as they began conference play with an 0-2 start that included a 22-point thrashing they received from louisiana tech on the road. As if it was a coincidence, that was also the same point at which Utah State began its 11-game run through the WAC, in which they went from the bottom to the top of the standings and re-established dominance in a conference they are used to dominating. So it's not anything new to them. They come in overall at 21-6 overall and 11-2 in the WAC, which include two wins against Nevada and revenge against louisiana tech at home. they too possess impressive balance across the board with quayle, wesley, bendall, and guys like green off the bench along with a defensive stalwart in pooh williams. Utah State plays a very disciplined type of basketball which is based on precise execution on offense which they do very well, and tough, effective team defense.

Utah State comes in playing their best basketball of the year without a doubt and their confidence is sky-high right now as they are riding the longest winning streak of their season and doesn't look like they are intent on stopping this streak anytime soon. Meanwhile, Wichita state is a very capable and solid team from the Valley that can shoot themselves into or out of the game. It is also important that they take care of the bal in such a hostile environment against an aggressive, smart defense.  Utah state comes in cahing in at a 9-2 ATS run and wichita state is only 10-10 ATS on the year with an average road record at best at 5-5 SU. Utah state jumps out to the lead here behind an electrifying crowd and though wichita state will keep it close at times, expect utah state's home court here to give them the edge and the cover as they out-execute the shockers here til the end. Lay the points at Utah state -7 as they roll here.

purdue and ohio st. meet in this battle of two giants in the Big Ten conference and a pivotal one as both teams have three losses in conference play and are vying for a share of first place along with michigan state at the top. purdue comes in, checking in at an impressive 21-3 overall record, with a 9-3 record in conference while ohio st. comes in with a 20-6 overall record with a 10-3 conference record. both teams are almost mirror images of each other in terms of scoring margin with purdue scoring about 74 ppg and giving up 61 ppg and ohio st. at 74 and 60 ppg, respectively. ohio st comes into this one owning an impressive 15-0 home record, while purdue checks in with a 5-2 record on the highway this season. Both teams come in streaking, with purdue having won 7 staright and the buckeyes having gone 6 games without a loss. Both squads are coming off dominating performances, with purdue having dismissed iowa by 23 at home, while ohio st. put on a clinic on the fightin illini last sunday, crushing them by 19 on the road. It figures to be a great atmosphere at Value City Arena, with a potential first place spot in the Big Ten on the line and a statement game for both teams.

Ohio st. comes into this game on a little bit of a tear, having dominated their last two road games including a quality win at Illinois on Sunday. Ohio st. has also won 4 of thier last 5 home games by a count of double digits and are exceptional at home. they are probably playing the best basketball of the year and have 4 players in double figures in turner, diebler, lighty, and buford. ohio st. tends to shut teams down with an aggressive and athletic defense, mixing up zone and man-to-man defenses and it was in full display when they last took the court at Illinios when they clicked on all cylinders. diebler brings an added dimension to them as he can be unstoppable from 3pt land if he gets going. they also have other capable players in buford, lighty, and lauderadale who have played key roles in their success. Evan Turner is their leaderm and  a national player of the year candidate and has played like one the last couple weeks after returning from early-season injury. Ohio st. is also 14-4 ATS in the series and covered 3 of 5 at home in conference play.

Purdue is also red hot, having strung together another 7-game winning streak after having their 14-game winning streak snapped earlier in the season. Impressive wins have included a thrashing of michigan st. on the road by 12 in which they outplayed the spartans from start to finish. they have 3 double-figure scorers in moore, hummel, and johnson, and several other key players chipping in like kramer and grant. they play a suffocating brand of man-to-man defense and is a reason they have been so succeessful as most teams  cannot handle their tenacious play on defense for the full 40 minutes. sometimes it does take a toll on their offense because they exert som much on the defensive end and this has been shown in some of their losses. however, they are playing at a high level right now and are a tough out for any team in the country at this point. last year, purdue lost to ohio st. at home by 4 and have lost their last 5 road games in Ohio . they are also 4-6 ATS in road games overall.

This cannot be much more even of a matchup than between these two teams, who will be looking toward this game with much anticipation, close to that of a rivalry. But I see Purdue having more motivation for this game because of their home loss to the buckeyes last year and their play of late. they also have a lot of veterans on their squad and will not be intimated by ohio st and their daunting 15-0 home record. they also present size problems for ohio st,. down low with 6-10 johnson inside and hummel at 6-8 who can step out and hit a couple of 3s and is a tough matchup for ohio st. the overall trends would seem to side with the buckeyes as they 9-6 ATS at home on the year but this is a classic letdown spot as they come off a two-game road swing domination and return home to face a very tough and well-coached purdue squad who is out for revenge and have had an extra day to prepare for this game as well. Look for purdues experience and gritty play to possibly eke out the upset and keep the game close til the buzzer. take purdue and points +3.5. GL

This is an intriguing matchup of one of the most dominant teams in college right now in the kansas jayhawks and another streaking team in texas a&m who comes in with a little bit of momentum in conference play. it remains to be seem whether anyone in the BIG12 can challenge kansas, as indicated by their flawless mark at 10-0 in conference play, although they have had a couple close calls against baylor at home, colorado and kansas state on the road but were able to escape with close wins in those games. kansas also boasts the top fg% defense in the nation at about 36.5% and allow 62 ppg while averaging almost 83 ppg. texas a&m on the flip side average around 73ppg and 65 ppg, respectively. On a side note, texas a&m also owns a 16-game home court winning streak so they have had no problems holding their own on their floor. A year ago when the teams met, it was blowout city as kansas handled the aggies with ease in a 20-point blowout as home favorites. kansas also has won 14 of 15 in the series so it has been a one-sided affair to put it candidly.

since losing to tennesse earlier before the start of conference play, it has seemed to lit a fire under kansas and billselfs squad as they have ripped off 10 strait conf. wins in dominant fashion. few yrs ago when kansas lost much of its bally-hooed superstars after winning the ncaa title over memphis, with the only player remaining in sherron collins, many did not expect them to reach the status of being the top team in the nation so soon. of course it helped that calipari left memphis, allowing kansas to get in on the recruiting fiasco gone wild as top recruits fled from memphis in search of other schools to sign with, they have molded young, exciting talent to go with veteran leadership in sherron collins and it couldnt have worked out better as they are clearly on the the top three teams in the country and have shown little sign of slowing down. aldrich gives them an incredible low-post presence n scoring down low, while collins directs the offense, surrounded by a youthful cast that has blossomed into maybe the best in the nation at this point with guys like the morris twins and xavier henry. meanwhile, texas a&m has quietly won 6 of 7 in conference play and are playing their best basketball of the season. despite losing roland to a serious leg injury early in the season vs washington in which affected the team's mood and spirits for a short period thereafter and perhaps their play, they have displayed their toughness in overcoming injury to one of their best guards and played inspiring basketball to climb within 3 games of the conference leader in kansas. texas a&m is a very athletic and long team that uses their quick guards to create tempo on offense while bryan davis has been a monster of late down low for them, as well as contributions from key frshmen in dash harris and b.j. holmes.

kansas comes into this game on a roll and a stellar 7-1 road record, having found ways to win the close ones as well. despite this texas a&m is 13-0 at homr on the year and this is probably the biggest game for them all year as a possible at-large bid to the NCAA tourney is at stake and they can at least improve their resume with a win here. despite the hype that kansas receives and though it is well-deserved this kansas team has shown they can be vulnerable at times, especially on the road. I believe they will get their best shot from texas a&m tonite who are playing their best ball of the year and have revenge firmly in their minds after the blowout last year. add to it that kansas' frshmen have yet to experience the confines of college station and u have the makings of a possible upset. the aggies get the edge here on monday and will be in the game from tip to finish, texas a&m +7. GL

This is the second of two conference matchups between siena and niagara, with siena having won the first matchup on their home floor by a count of 83-65. Siena averages almost 77 ppg while giving up a shade under 67 ppg on the defensive end, compared to niagara averaging 71ppg and giving up around 69 ppg on defense. Siena boasts 4 players in double figures scoring-wise and shoot a high percentage on offense at about 47%, while niagara shoots under 40% for the year, which is not good at all. Last season both teams split their regular season games, with each winning on their home court. They also met in the MAAC conference championship game, with Siena holding Niagara off for the NCAA bid. And both teams basically return the same teams, with siena having lost MAAC player of the year Kenny Habrouck and Niagara losing Benson Egemonye to graduation. However, it seems the similarities end there as this has been a tale of two teams heading in opposite directions this year without a doubt. Let's begin with Niagara, as they come in at a pedestrian 13-13 overall record and a sub-.500 record in conference play at 6-8. They are 6-4 at home on the year but have lost 3 of their last 4 there. After coming into the season with pretty high expectations after nearly missing the NCAA tourney last year and a squad returning almost full strength, Niagara has been a model of inconsistency. They began the year showing some promise in non-conference play, claiming a win over MVC power Illinois State on the road. But since then, they have been struggling to find a rythm, unable to put together any formidable winning streaks. It seems that losing Egemonye has hurt them inside where they dont have that 7-footer that can give them a low post scoring threat along with tough defense. Theyve resorted to being more of a jump-shooting team altogether and this has resulted in too many jack-ups from outside, as evidenced by their poor FG percentage at under 40%. On the flip side, Siena comes in at an impressive 21-4 overall with an undefeated record in conference play at 14-0, clearly having dominated play in the conference by a wide margin. It seems the loss of Hasbrouck has not hurt Siena as much as many predicted it may and they have not seemed to lose a step this season. The combination of experience and talent has propelled this team over the top this year. After some tough non-conf. games against the likes of Georgia Tech, Temple, and Northern Iowa, Siena has steamrolled through MAAC play thus far, leaving no doubt in anyones mind who the best team is in the metro-atlantic region. Last year, when the game was in Niagara both teams were dominating conference play and Niagara was far better at home last year and were able to ride the momentum to a victory. But make no mistake, these are 2 teams going in different directions with Niagara struggling to find consistency with their play all year, while Siena has proven almost unbeatable in the conference. Also, Niagara is a poor 2-6 ATS at home on the year, and siena has dominated the series, going 15-5 ATS in the last 20 meetings and having won 5 of 6 strait up recently. With conference play slowly winding down, expect siena to bring a focused and determined effort and show that they are flat out the better basketball team, and the score will tell the story. There will be no magic on niagaras side this year, their lack of inside scoring will spell doom against sienas balanced combo of inside and outside scoring. Lay the low number here on Siena -4.5 as the saints coast through this one on national TV (espn2) rather easily and move to a dominant 15-0 in conference. GL as always.